Subjective and Other Probabilities
نویسنده
چکیده
Historically, the term probability has been associated with a number of different concepts. The standard mathematical definition due to Kolmogorov (1933/1950) identifies probability with a countably additive measure on a σ algebra.1 This definition underlies a powerful theory that includes the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. Yet in the applications of this theory, probability has different extramathematical interpretations. Since its inception by Bernoulli (1713), de Moivre (1756), and Laplace (1814/1917), the calculus of probability has been applied to—or even designed for—repetitive experiments with gambling apparatus, such as coins, cards, dice, roulette wheels, and so on. Each of these devices has a natural symmetry that is commonly known a priori. This symmetry determines an exhaustive collection of equally possible states and motivates the classical interpretation of probability
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تاریخ انتشار 2007